A new KFF analysis finds that an estimated 1.7 million Medicaid enrollees could become ineligible for federal Medicaid under proposed work requirements and presents state-by-state projections, based on estimates of coverage loss from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
States could continue to provide Medicaid to those enrollees but would not receive federal matching funds for doing so. It is unclear if any states would choose to do that, though CBO estimated over half of enrollees would continue to be covered at the states’ expense. If states did choose to continue coverage for those individuals, states collectively could face $10.3 billion in new costs in 2024.
The work requirements were included in the Republican-backed debt ceiling legislation that passed the House of Representatives on April 26.
Five states would pay nearly half of the estimated $10.3 billion in new costs: California (326,000 enrollees at a cost of $1.6 billion), New York (186,000, $1.1 billion), Illinois (116,000, $692 million), Pennsylvania (83,000, $537 million) and Washington (72,000, $578 million).